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Average Weather in Mancelona Michigan, United States

In Mancelona, the summers are comfortable and partly cloudy and the winters are freezing, snowy, windy, and overcast. Over the course of the year, the temperature typically varies from 11°F to 79°F and is rarely below -5°F or above 87°F.

Climate Summary

freezingvery coldcoldcoolwarmcoolcoldvery coldJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec67%67%22%22%overcastclearprecipitation: 3.2 inprecipitation: 3.2 in0.9 in0.9 inmuggy: 16%muggy: 16%0%0%drydrytourism score: 6.5tourism score: 6.50.00.0
Click on each chart for more information.

Based on the tourism score, the best time of year to visit Mancelona for warm-weather activities is from late June to late August.

Temperature

The warm season lasts for 3.8 months, from May 23 to September 16, with an average daily high temperature above 68°F. The hottest day of the year is July 19, with an average high of 79°F and low of 57°F.

The cold season lasts for 3.4 months, from November 30 to March 11, with an average daily high temperature below 36°F. The coldest day of the year is January 29, with an average low of 11°F and high of 25°F.

Average High and Low Temperature

The daily average high (red line) and low (blue line) temperature, with 25th to 75th and 10th to 90th percentile bands. The thin dotted lines are the corresponding average perceived temperatures.

The figure below shows you a compact characterization of the entire year of hourly average temperatures. The horizontal axis is the day of the year, the vertical axis is the hour of the day, and the color is the average temperature for that hour and day.

Average Hourly Temperature

Average Hourly Temperature in MancelonaJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec12 AM4 AM8 AM12 PM4 PM8 PM12 AMfreezingvery coldcoldcoldcoolcomfortablewarmvery coldfreezingfrigid
The average hourly temperature, color coded into bands: frigid < 15°F < freezing < 32°F < very cold < 45°F < cold < 55°F < cool < 65°F < comfortable < 75°F < warm < 85°F < hot < 95°F < sweltering. The shaded overlays indicate night and civil twilight.

Hrazdan, Armenia (5,775 miles away) is the far-away foreign place with temperatures most similar to Mancelona (view comparison).

Clouds

In Mancelona, the average percentage of the sky covered by clouds experiences significant seasonal variation over the course of the year.

The clearer part of the year in Mancelona begins around April 20 and lasts for 6.4 months, ending around November 2. On August 8, the clearest day of the year, the sky is clear, mostly clear, or partly cloudy 67% of the time, and overcast or mostly cloudy 33% of the time.

The cloudier part of the year begins around November 2 and lasts for 5.6 months, ending around April 20. On January 11, the cloudiest day of the year, the sky is overcast or mostly cloudy 78% of the time, and clear, mostly clear, or partly cloudy 22% of the time.

Cloud Cover Categories

Cloud Cover Categories in MancelonaclearercloudiercloudierJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec0%100%10%90%20%80%30%70%40%60%50%50%60%40%70%30%80%20%90%10%100%0%Aug 867%Aug 867%Jan 1122%Jan 1122%Apr 2044%Apr 2044%Nov 245%Nov 245%clearmostly clearmostly cloudyovercastpartly cloudy
The percentage of time spent in each cloud cover band, categorized by the percentage of the sky covered by clouds: clear < 20% < mostly clear < 40% < partly cloudy < 60% < mostly cloudy < 80% < overcast.

Precipitation

A wet day is one with at least 0.04 inches of liquid or liquid-equivalent precipitation. The chance of wet days in Mancelona varies throughout the year.

The wetter season lasts 7.5 months, from April 9 to November 25, with a greater than 26% chance of a given day being a wet day. The chance of a wet day peaks at 36% on September 22.

The drier season lasts 4.5 months, from November 25 to April 9. The smallest chance of a wet day is 15% on February 4.

Among wet days, we distinguish between those that experience rain alone, snow alone, or a mixture of the two. Based on this categorization, the most common form of precipitation in Mancelona changes throughout the year.

Rain alone is the most common for 8.8 months, from March 13 to December 5. The highest chance of a day with rain alone is 36% on September 22.

Snow alone is the most common for 3.2 months, from December 5 to March 13. The highest chance of a day with snow alone is 16% on January 11.

Daily Chance of Precipitation

Daily Chance of Precipitation in MancelonasnowrainsnowJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Sep 2236%Sep 2236%Feb 415%Feb 415%Mar 1318%Mar 1318%Dec 524%Dec 524%snowrainmixed
The percentage of days in which various types of precipitation are observed, excluding trace quantities: rain alone, snow alone, and mixed (both rain and snow fell in the same day).

Rainfall

To show variation within the months and not just the monthly totals, we show the rainfall accumulated over a sliding 31-day period centered around each day of the year. Mancelona experiences significant seasonal variation in monthly rainfall.

The rainy period of the year lasts for 10.0 months, from February 27 to December 26, with a sliding 31-day rainfall of at least 0.5 inches. The most rain falls during the 31 days centered around September 21, with an average total accumulation of 3.2 inches.

The rainless period of the year lasts for 2.0 months, from December 26 to February 27. The least rain falls around February 4, with an average total accumulation of 0.3 inches.

Average Monthly Rainfall

The average rainfall (solid line) accumulated over the course of a sliding 31-day period centered on the day in question, with 25th to 75th and 10th to 90th percentile bands. The thin dotted line is the corresponding average liquid-equivalent snowfall.

Snowfall

We report snowfall in liquid-equivalent terms. The actual depth of new snowfall is typically between 5 and 10 times the liquid-equivalent amount, assuming the ground is frozen. Colder, drier snow tends to be on the higher end of that range and warmer, wetter snow on the lower end.

As with rainfall, we consider the snowfall accumulated over a sliding 31-day period centered around each day of the year. Mancelona experiences some seasonal variation in monthly liquid-equivalent snowfall.

The snowy period of the year lasts for 6.1 months, from October 26 to April 30, with a sliding 31-day liquid-equivalent snowfall of at least 0.1 inches. The most snow falls during the 31 days centered around January 3, with an average total liquid-equivalent accumulation of 0.8 inches.

The snowless period of the year lasts for 5.9 months, from April 30 to October 26. The least snow falls around July 15, with an average total liquid-equivalent accumulation of 0.0 inches.

Average Liquid-Equivalent Monthly Snowfall

Average Liquid-Equivalent Monthly Snowfall in MancelonasnowsnowJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec0.0 in0.5 in1.0 in1.5 in2.0 in2.5 in3.0 in3.5 inJan 30.8 inJan 30.8 inJul 150.0 inJul 150.0 inOct 260.1 inOct 260.1 inApr 300.1 inApr 300.1 in
The average liquid-equivalent snowfall (solid line) accumulated over the course of a sliding 31-day period centered on the day in question, with 25th to 75th and 10th to 90th percentile bands. The thin dotted line is the corresponding average rainfall.

Sun

The length of the day in Mancelona varies significantly over the course of the year. In 2017, the shortest day is December 21, with 8 hours, 47 minutes of daylight; the longest day is June 21, with 15 hours, 36 minutes of daylight.

Hours of Daylight and Twilight

The number of hours during which the Sun is visible (black line). From bottom (most yellow) to top (most gray), the color bands indicate: full daylight, twilight (civil, nautical, and astronomical), and full night.

The earliest sunrise is at 5:53 AM on June 15, and the latest sunrise is 2 hours, 30 minutes later at 8:23 AM on November 4. The earliest sunset is at 4:58 PM on December 10, and the latest sunset is 4 hours, 32 minutes later at 9:30 PM on June 26.

Daylight saving time (DST) is observed in Mancelona during 2017, starting in the spring on March 12, lasting 7.8 months, and ending in the fall on November 5.

Sunrise & Sunset with Twilight and Daylight Saving Time

Sunrise & Sunset with Twilight and Daylight Saving Time in MancelonaJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec2 AM4 AM6 AM8 AM10 AM12 PM2 PM4 PM6 PM8 PM10 PM12 AMJun 155:53 AMJun 155:53 AM9:30 PMJun 269:30 PMJun 26Dec 104:58 PMDec 104:58 PM8:23 AMNov 48:23 AMNov 4Mar 12DSTMar 12DSTDSTNov 5DSTNov 5daynightnightnightnightSolarMidnightSolarMidnightSolarNoonSunriseSunset
The solar day over the course of the year 2017. From bottom to top, the black lines are the previous solar midnight, sunrise, solar noon, sunset, and the next solar midnight. The day, twilights (civil, nautical, and astronomical), and night are indicated by the color bands from yellow to gray. The transitions to and from daylight saving time are indicated by the 'DST' labels.

Humidity

We base the humidity comfort level on the dew point, as it determines whether perspiration will evaporate from the skin, thereby cooling the body. Lower dew points feel drier and higher dew points feel more humid. Unlike temperature, which typically varies significantly between night and day, dew point tends to change more slowly, so while the temperature may drop at night, a muggy day is typically followed by a muggy night.

Mancelona experiences some seasonal variation in the perceived humidity.

The muggier period of the year lasts for 3.3 months, from June 6 to September 17, during which time the comfort level is muggy, oppressive, or miserable at least 4% of the time. The muggiest day of the year is July 30, with muggy conditions 16% of the time.

The least muggy day of the year is December 9, when muggy conditions are essentially unheard of.

Humidity Comfort Levels

Humidity Comfort Levels in MancelonamuggyJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Dec 90%Dec 90%Jul 3016%Jul 3016%Jun 64%Jun 64%Sep 174%Sep 174%comfortablecomfortabledrydrymuggymuggyhumidhumid
The percentage of time spent at various humidity comfort levels, categorized by dew point: dry < 55°F < comfortable < 60°F < humid < 65°F < muggy < 70°F < oppressive < 75°F < miserable.

Wind

This section discusses the wide-area hourly average wind vector (speed and direction) at 10 meters above the ground. The wind experienced at any given location is highly dependent on local topography and other factors, and instantaneous wind speed and direction vary more widely than hourly averages.

The average hourly wind speed in Mancelona experiences significant seasonal variation over the course of the year.

The windier part of the year lasts for 7.2 months, from October 2 to May 7, with average wind speeds of more than 10.2 miles per hour. The windiest day of the year is January 13, with an average hourly wind speed of 12.3 miles per hour.

The calmer time of year lasts for 4.8 months, from May 7 to October 2. The calmest day of the year is August 3, with an average hourly wind speed of 8.1 miles per hour.

Average Wind Speed

Average Wind Speed in MancelonawindywindyJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec0 mph2 mph4 mph6 mph8 mph10 mph12 mph14 mph16 mph18 mph20 mphJan 1312.3 mphJan 1312.3 mphAug 38.1 mphAug 38.1 mphOct 210.2 mphOct 210.2 mphMay 710.2 mphMay 710.2 mph
The average of mean hourly wind speeds (dark gray line), with 25th to 75th and 10th to 90th percentile bands.

The predominant average hourly wind direction in Mancelona varies throughout the year.

The wind is most often from the north for 2.6 months, from February 24 to May 13, with a peak percentage of 33% on March 8. The wind is most often from the south for 1.4 weeks, from May 13 to May 23 and for 2.5 months, from August 31 to November 14, with a peak percentage of 34% on October 2. The wind is most often from the west for 3.3 months, from May 23 to August 31 and for 3.4 months, from November 14 to February 24, with a peak percentage of 39% on July 18.

Wind Direction

Wind Direction in MancelonaWNSWSWJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec0%100%20%80%40%60%60%40%80%20%100%0%westsouthnortheast
The percentage of hours in which the mean wind direction is from each of the four cardinal wind directions (north, east, south, and west), excluding hours in which the mean wind speed is less than 1 mph. The lightly tinted areas at the boundaries are the percentage of hours spent in the implied intermediate directions (northeast, southeast, southwest, and northwest).

Water Temperature

Mancelona is located near a large body of water (e.g., ocean, sea, or large lake). This section reports on the wide-area average surface temperature of that water.

The average water temperature experiences significant seasonal variation over the course of the year.

The time of year with warmer water lasts for 2.4 months, from July 12 to September 26, with an average temperature above 61°F. The day of the year with the warmest water is August 14, with an average temperature of 68°F.

The time of year with cooler water lasts for 5.0 months, from December 19 to May 20, with an average temperature below 41°F. The day of the year with the coolest water is March 8, with an average temperature of 34°F.

Average Water Temperature

The daily average water temperature (purple line), with 25th to 75th and 10th to 90th percentile bands.

Best Time of Year to Visit

To characterize how pleasant the weather is in Mancelona throughout the year, we compute two travel scores.

The tourism score favors clear, rainless days with perceived temperatures between 65°F and 80°F. Based on this score, the best time of year to visit Mancelona for general outdoor tourist activities is from late June to late August, with a peak score in the last week of July.

Tourism Score

Tourism Score in Mancelonabest timeJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec02468106.56.50.00.0 precipitationprecipitationcloudscloudstemperaturetemperaturetourism score
The tourism score (filled area), and its constituents: the temperature score (red line), the cloud cover score (blue line), and the precipitation score (green line).

The beach/pool score favors clear, rainless days with perceived temperatures between 75°F and 90°F. Based on this score, the best time of year to visit Mancelona for hot-weather activities is from early July to mid August, with a peak score in the third week of July.

Beach/Pool Score

Beach/Pool Score in MancelonaJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec02468104.14.10.00.0 precipitationprecipitationcloudscloudstemperaturetemperaturebeach/pool score
The beach/pool score (filled area), and its constituents: the temperature score (red line), the cloud cover score (blue line), and the precipitation score (green line).

Methodology

For each hour between 8:00 AM and 9:00 PM of each day in the analysis period (1980 to 2016), independent scores are computed for perceived temperature, cloud cover, and total precipitation. Those scores are combined into a single hourly composite score, which is then aggregated into days, averaged over all the years in the analysis period, and smoothed.

Our cloud cover score is 10 for fully clear skies, falling linearly to 9 for mostly clear skies, and to 1 for fully overcast skies.

Our precipitation score, which is based on the three-hour precipitation centered on the hour in question, is 10 for no precipitation, falling linearly to 9 for trace precipitation, and to 0 for 0.04 inches of precipitation or more.

Our tourism temperature score is 0 for perceived temperatures below 50°F, rising linearly to 9 for 65°F, to 10 for 75°F, falling linearly to 9 for 80°F, and to 1 for 90°F or hotter.

Our beach/pool temperature score is 0 for perceived temperatures below 65°F, rising linearly to 9 for 75°F, to 10 for 82°F, falling linearly to 9 for 90°F, and to 1 for 100°F or hotter.

Growing Season

Definitions of the growing season vary throughout the world, but for the purposes of this report, we define it as the longest continuous period of non-freezing temperatures (≥ 32°F) in the year (the calendar year in the Northern Hemisphere, or from July 1 until June 30 in the Southern Hemisphere).

The growing season in Mancelona typically lasts for 4.1 months (127 days), from around May 24 to around September 27, rarely starting before May 5 or after June 11, and rarely ending before September 10 or after October 14.

Time Spent in Various Temperature Bands and the Growing Season

Time Spent in Various Temperature Bands and the Growing Season in Mancelonagrowing seasonJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec0%100%10%90%20%80%30%70%40%60%50%50%60%40%70%30%80%20%90%10%100%0%May 2450%May 2450%Sep 2750%Sep 2750%Jun 1190%Jun 1190%Sep 1090%Sep 1090%May 510%May 510%Oct 1410%Oct 1410%0%Nov 290%Nov 29Jul 27100%Jul 27100%frigidfreezingcoldcoolcomfortablevery coldhot
The percentage of time spent in various temperature bands: frigid < 15°F < freezing < 32°F < very cold < 45°F < cold < 55°F < cool < 65°F < comfortable < 75°F < warm < 85°F < hot < 95°F < sweltering. The black line is the percentage chance that a given day is within the growing season.

Growing degree days are a measure of yearly heat accumulation used to predict plant and animal development, and defined as the integral of warmth above a base temperature, discarding any excess above a maximum temperature. In this report, we use a base of 50°F and a cap of 86°F.

Based on growing degree days alone, the first spring blooms in Mancelona should appear around May 2, only rarely appearing before April 20 or after May 17.

Growing Degree Days

The average growing degree days accumulated over the course of the year, with 25th to 75th and 10th to 90th percentile bands.

Solar Energy

This section discusses the total daily incident shortwave solar energy reaching the surface of the ground over a wide area, taking full account of seasonal variations in the length of the day, the elevation of the Sun above the horizon, and absorption by clouds and other atmospheric constituents. Shortwave radiation includes visible light and ultraviolet radiation.

The average daily incident shortwave solar energy experiences extreme seasonal variation over the course of the year.

The brighter period of the year lasts for 3.5 months, from May 6 to August 20, with an average daily incident shortwave energy per square meter above 5.8 kWh. The brightest day of the year is July 1, with an average of 7.0 kWh.

The darker period of the year lasts for 3.5 months, from October 29 to February 15, with an average daily incident shortwave energy per square meter below 2.3 kWh. The darkest day of the year is December 23, with an average of 1.1 kWh.

Average Daily Incident Shortwave Solar Energy

The average daily shortwave solar energy reaching the ground per square meter (orange line), with 25th to 75th and 10th to 90th percentile bands.

Topography

For the purposes of this report, the geographical coordinates of Mancelona are 44.902 deg latitude, -85.061 deg longitude, and 1,132 ft elevation.

The topography within 2 miles of Mancelona contains only modest variations in elevation, with a maximum elevation change of 315 feet and an average elevation above sea level of 1,158 feet. Within 10 miles contains only modest variations in elevation (883 feet). Within 50 miles also contains very significant variations in elevation (1,234 feet).

The area within 2 miles of Mancelona is covered by cropland (35%), grassland (28%), and trees (28%), within 10 miles by trees (77%), and within 50 miles by trees (56%) and water (22%).

Data Sources

This report illustrates the typical weather in Mancelona, based on a statistical analysis of historical hourly weather reports and model reconstructions from January 1, 1980 to December 31, 2016.

Temperature and Dew Point

There are 3 weather stations near enough to contribute to our estimation of the temperature and dew point in Mancelona.

For each station, the records are corrected for the elevation difference between that station and Mancelona according to the International Standard Atmosphere , and by the relative change present in the MERRA-2 satellite-era reanalysis between the two locations.

The estimated value at Mancelona is computed as the weighted average of the individual contributions from each station, with weights proportional to the inverse of the distance between Mancelona and a given station.

The stations contributing to this reconstruction are: Antrim County Airport (50%, 15 kilometers, northwest); Gaylord Regional Airport (28%, 31 kilometers, northeast); and Grayling, Grayling Army Airfield (23%, 36 kilometers, southeast).

Other Data

All data relating to the Sun's position (e.g., sunrise and sunset) are computed using astronomical formulas from the book, Astronomical Tables of the Sun, Moon and Planets , by Jean Meeus.

All other weather data, including cloud cover, precipitation, wind speed and direction, and solar flux, come from NASA's MERRA-2 Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis . This reanalysis combines a variety of wide-area measurements in a state-of-the-art global meteorological model to reconstruct the hourly history of weather throughout the world on a 50-kilometer grid.

Land Use data comes from the Global Land Cover SHARE database , published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Elevation data comes from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) , published by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Names, locations, and time zones of places and some airports come from the GeoNames Geographical Database .

Time zones for aiports and weather stations are provided by AskGeo.com .

Maps are © Esri, with data from National Geographic, Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, UNEP-WCMC, USGS, NASA, ESA, METI, NRCAN, GEBCO, NOAA, and iPC.

Disclaimer

The information on this site is provided as is, without any assurances as to its accuracy or suitability for any purpose. Weather data is prone to errors, outages, and other defects. We assume no responsibility for any decisions made on the basis of the content presented on this site.

We draw particular cautious attention to our reliance on the MERRA-2 model-based reconstructions for a number of important data series. While having the tremendous advantages of temporal and spatial completeness, these reconstructions: (1) are based on computer models that may have model-based errors, (2) are coarsely sampled on a 50 km grid and are therefore unable to reconstruct the local variations of many microclimates, and (3) have particular difficulty with the weather in some coastal areas, especially small islands.

We further caution that our travel scores are only as good as the data that underpin them, that weather conditions at any given location and time are unpredictable and variable, and that the definition of the scores reflects a particular set of preferences that may not agree with those of any particular reader.