Average Weather in October in Flagstaff Arizona, United States
Daily high temperatures decrease by 11°F, from 68°F to 57°F, rarely falling below 45°F or exceeding 76°F.
Daily low temperatures decrease by 9°F, from 39°F to 30°F, rarely falling below 22°F or exceeding 47°F.
For reference, on July 4, the hottest day of the year, temperatures in Flagstaff typically range from 51°F to 81°F, while on January 4, the coldest day of the year, they range from 19°F to 42°F.
Average High and Low Temperature in October
The figure below shows you a compact characterization of the hourly average temperatures for the quarter of the year centered on October. The horizontal axis is the day, the vertical axis is the hour of the day, and the color is the average temperature for that hour and day.
Average Hourly Temperature in October
frigid 15°F freezing 32°F very cold 45°F cold 55°F cool 65°F comfortable 75°F warm 85°F hot 95°F sweltering
The month of October in Flagstaff experiences increasing cloud cover, with the percentage of time that the sky is overcast or mostly cloudy increasing from 17% to 27%.
The clearest day of the month is October 1, with clear, mostly clear, or partly cloudy conditions 83% of the time.
For reference, on February 19, the cloudiest day of the year, the chance of overcast or mostly cloudy conditions is 41%, while on September 19, the clearest day of the year, the chance of clear, mostly clear, or partly cloudy skies is 84%.
Cloud Cover Categories in October
0% clear 20% mostly clear 40% partly cloudy 60% mostly cloudy 80% overcast 100%
A wet day is one with at least 0.04 inches of liquid or liquid-equivalent precipitation. In Flagstaff, the chance of a wet day over the course of October is essentially constant, remaining around 11% throughout.
For reference, the year's highest daily chance of a wet day is 39% on August 4, and its lowest chance is 4% on June 14.
Over the course of October in Flagstaff, the chance of a day with only rain decreases from 11% to 9%, the chance of a day with mixed snow and rain remains an essentially constant 1% throughout, and the chance of a day with only snow remains an essentially constant 1% throughout.
Probability of Precipitation in October
To show variation within the month and not just the monthly total, we show the rainfall accumulated over a sliding 31-day period centered around each day.
The average sliding 31-day rainfall during October in Flagstaff is essentially constant, remaining about 1.0 inches throughout, and rarely exceeding 2.3 inches.
Average Monthly Rainfall in October
We report snowfall in liquid-equivalent terms. The actual depth of new snowfall is typically between 5 and 10 times the liquid-equivalent amount, assuming the ground is frozen. As with rainfall, we consider the liquid-equivalent snowfall accumulated over a sliding 31-day period centered around each day.
The average sliding 31-day liquid-equivalent snowfall during October in Flagstaff is essentially constant, remaining about 0.1 inches throughout, and rarely exceeding 0.4 inches or falling to 0.0 inches.
Average Monthly Liquid-Equivalent Snowfall in October
Over the course of October in Flagstaff, the length of the day is rapidly decreasing. From the start to the end of the month, the length of the day decreases by 1 hour, 3 minutes, implying an average daily decrease of 2 minutes, 6 seconds, and weekly decrease of 14 minutes, 43 seconds.
The shortest day of the month is October 31, with 10 hours, 46 minutes of daylight and the longest day is October 1, with 11 hours, 49 minutes of daylight.
Hours of Daylight and Twilight in October
The earliest sunrise of the month in Flagstaff is 6:21 AM on October 1 and the latest sunrise is 26 minutes later at 6:46 AM on October 31.
The latest sunset is 6:10 PM on October 1 and the earliest sunset is 38 minutes earlier at 5:33 PM on October 31.
Daylight saving time is not observed in Flagstaff during 2019.
For reference, on June 21, the longest day of the year, the Sun rises at 5:12 AM and sets 14 hours, 32 minutes later, at 7:44 PM, while on December 22, the shortest day of the year, it rises at 7:31 AM and sets 9 hours, 47 minutes later, at 5:18 PM.
Sunrise & Sunset with Twilight in October
We base the humidity comfort level on the dew point, as it determines whether perspiration will evaporate from the skin, thereby cooling the body. Lower dew points feel drier and higher dew points feel more humid. Unlike temperature, which typically varies significantly between night and day, dew point tends to change more slowly, so while the temperature may drop at night, a muggy day is typically followed by a muggy night.
The chance that a given day will be muggy in Flagstaff is essentially constant during October, remaining around 0% throughout.
Humidity Comfort Levels in October
dry 55°F comfortable 60°F humid 65°F muggy 70°F oppressive 75°F miserable
This section discusses the wide-area hourly average wind vector (speed and direction) at 10 meters above the ground. The wind experienced at any given location is highly dependent on local topography and other factors, and instantaneous wind speed and direction vary more widely than hourly averages.
The average hourly wind speed in Flagstaff is essentially constant during October, remaining within 0.1 miles per hour of 6.8 miles per hour throughout.
For reference, on April 10, the windiest day of the year, the daily average wind speed is 9.1 miles per hour, while on August 13, the calmest day of the year, the daily average wind speed is 5.5 miles per hour.
Average Wind Speed in October
Wind Direction in October
Definitions of the growing season vary throughout the world, but for the purposes of this report, we define it as the longest continuous period of non-freezing temperatures (≥ 32°F) in the year (the calendar year in the Northern Hemisphere, or from July 1 until June 30 in the Southern Hemisphere).
The growing season in Flagstaff typically lasts for 4.1 months (125 days), from around May 30 to around October 1, rarely starting before May 10 or after June 17, and rarely ending before September 13 or after October 19.
During October in Flagstaff, the chance that a given day is within the growing season is very rapidly decreasing falling from 51% to 0% over the course of the month.
Time Spent in Various Temperature Bands and the Growing Season in October
frigid 15°F freezing 32°F very cold 45°F cold 55°F cool 65°F comfortable 75°F warm 85°F hot 95°F sweltering
Growing degree days are a measure of yearly heat accumulation used to predict plant and animal development, and defined as the integral of warmth above a base temperature, discarding any excess above a maximum temperature. In this report, we use a base of 50°F and a cap of 86°F.
The average accumulated growing degree days in Flagstaff are gradually increasing during October, increasing by 130°F, from 2,047°F to 2,176°F, over the course of the month.
Growing Degree Days in October
This section discusses the total daily incident shortwave solar energy reaching the surface of the ground over a wide area, taking full account of seasonal variations in the length of the day, the elevation of the Sun above the horizon, and absorption by clouds and other atmospheric constituents. Shortwave radiation includes visible light and ultraviolet radiation.
The average daily incident shortwave solar energy in Flagstaff is decreasing during October, falling by 1.4 kWh, from 5.7 kWh to 4.3 kWh, over the course of the month.
Average Daily Incident Shortwave Solar Energy in October
For the purposes of this report, the geographical coordinates of Flagstaff are 35.198 deg latitude, -111.651 deg longitude, and 6,982 ft elevation.
The topography within 2 miles of Flagstaff contains significant variations in elevation, with a maximum elevation change of 597 feet and an average elevation above sea level of 6,995 feet. Within 10 miles contains significant variations in elevation (6,001 feet). Within 50 miles also contains extreme variations in elevation (9,751 feet).
The area within 2 miles of Flagstaff is covered by shrubs (66%) and trees (28%), within 10 miles by trees (79%) and shrubs (21%), and within 50 miles by shrubs (64%) and trees (32%).
This report illustrates the typical weather in Flagstaff year round, based on a statistical analysis of historical hourly weather reports and model reconstructions from January 1, 1980 to December 31, 2016.
Temperature and Dew Point
There are 3 weather stations near enough to contribute to our estimation of the temperature and dew point in Flagstaff.
For each station, the records are corrected for the elevation difference between that station and Flagstaff according to the International Standard Atmosphere , and by the relative change present in the MERRA-2 satellite-era reanalysis between the two locations.
The estimated value at Flagstaff is computed as the weighted average of the individual contributions from each station, with weights proportional to the inverse of the distance between Flagstaff and a given station.
The stations contributing to this reconstruction are: Flagstaff Pulliam Airport (95%, 6 kilometers, south); H.A. Clark Memorial Field (3.9%, 51 kilometers, west); and Winslow Municipal Airport (1.3%, 87 kilometers, east).
All data relating to the Sun's position (e.g., sunrise and sunset) are computed using astronomical formulas from the book, Astronomical Tables of the Sun, Moon and Planets , by Jean Meeus.
All other weather data, including cloud cover, precipitation, wind speed and direction, and solar flux, come from NASA's MERRA-2 Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis . This reanalysis combines a variety of wide-area measurements in a state-of-the-art global meteorological model to reconstruct the hourly history of weather throughout the world on a 50-kilometer grid.
Land Use data comes from the Global Land Cover SHARE database , published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Elevation data comes from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) , published by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Names, locations, and time zones of places and some airports come from the GeoNames Geographical Database .
Time zones for aiports and weather stations are provided by AskGeo.com .
Maps are © Esri, with data from National Geographic, Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, UNEP-WCMC, USGS, NASA, ESA, METI, NRCAN, GEBCO, NOAA, and iPC.
The information on this site is provided as is, without any assurances as to its accuracy or suitability for any purpose. Weather data is prone to errors, outages, and other defects. We assume no responsibility for any decisions made on the basis of the content presented on this site.
We draw particular cautious attention to our reliance on the MERRA-2 model-based reconstructions for a number of important data series. While having the tremendous advantages of temporal and spatial completeness, these reconstructions: (1) are based on computer models that may have model-based errors, (2) are coarsely sampled on a 50 km grid and are therefore unable to reconstruct the local variations of many microclimates, and (3) have particular difficulty with the weather in some coastal areas, especially small islands.
We further caution that our travel scores are only as good as the data that underpin them, that weather conditions at any given location and time are unpredictable and variable, and that the definition of the scores reflects a particular set of preferences that may not agree with those of any particular reader.