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Average Weather in October in Mesa Arizona, United States

In Mesa, the month of October is characterized by rapidly falling daily high temperatures, with daily highs decreasing by 12°F, from 94°F to 82°F over the course of the month, and rarely exceeding 101°F or dropping below 72°F.

Daily low temperatures decrease by 12°F, from 71°F to 58°F, rarely falling below 51°F or exceeding 77°F.

For reference, on July 2, the hottest day of the year, temperatures in Mesa typically range from 82°F to 106°F, while on December 27, the coldest day of the year, they range from 44°F to 65°F.

Average High and Low Temperature in October

The daily average high (red line) and low (blue line) temperature, with 25th to 75th and 10th to 90th percentile bands. The thin dotted lines are the corresponding average perceived temperatures.

The figure below shows you a compact characterization of the hourly average temperatures for the quarter of the year centered on October. The horizontal axis is the day, the vertical axis is the hour of the day, and the color is the average temperature for that hour and day.

Average Hourly Temperature in October

Average Hourly Temperature in October in Mesa12 AM4 AM8 AM12 PM4 PM8 PM12 AM181522291122334455667788991010111112121313141415151616171718181919202021212222232324242525262627272828292930303131SepNovcoldcoolcomfortablewarmhotsweltering
The average hourly temperature, color coded into bands: frigid < 15°F < freezing < 32°F < chilly < 45°F < cold < 55°F < cool < 65°F < comfortable < 75°F < warm < 85°F < hot < 95°F < sweltering. The shaded overlays indicate night and civil twilight.

Clouds

The month of October in Mesa experiences increasing cloud cover, with the percentage of time that the sky is overcast or mostly cloudy increasing from 16% to 24%.

The clearest day of the month is October 1, with clear, mostly clear, or partly cloudy conditions 84% of the time.

For reference, on February 19, the cloudiest day of the year, the chance of overcast or mostly cloudy conditions is 38%, while on June 18, the clearest day of the year, the chance of clear, mostly clear, or partly cloudy skies is 85%.

Cloud Cover in October

The percentage of time spent in each cloud cover band, categorized by the percentage of the sky covered by clouds: clear < 20% < mostly clear < 40% < partly cloudy < 60% < mostly cloudy < 80% < overcast.

Precipitation

A wet day is one with at least 0.04 inches of liquid or liquid-equivalent precipitation. In Mesa, the chance of a wet day over the course of October is essentially constant, remaining around 8% throughout.

For reference, the year's highest daily chance of a wet day is 21% on August 4, and its lowest chance is 1% on June 11.

Probability of Precipitation in October

The percentage of days in which various types of precipitation are observed, excluding trace quantities: rain alone, snow alone, and mixed (both rain and snow fell in the same day).

Rainfall

To show variation within the month and not just the monthly total, we show the rainfall accumulated over a sliding 31-day period centered around each day.

The average sliding 31-day rainfall during October in Mesa is essentially constant, remaining about 0.6 inches throughout, and rarely exceeding 1.6 inches.

The lowest average 31-day accumulation is 0.6 inches on October 21.

Average Monthly Rainfall in October

The average rainfall (solid line) accumulated over the course of a sliding 31-day period centered on the day in question, with 25th to 75th and 10th to 90th percentile bands. The thin dotted line is the corresponding average liquid-equivalent snowfall.

Sun

Over the course of October in Mesa, the length of the day is decreasing. From the start to the end of the month, the length of the day decreases by 59 minutes, implying an average daily decrease of 1 minute, 58 seconds, and weekly decrease of 13 minutes, 44 seconds.

The shortest day of the month is October 31, with 10 hours, 51 minutes of daylight and the longest day is October 1, with 11 hours, 49 minutes of daylight.

Hours of Daylight and Twilight in October

The number of hours during which the Sun is visible (black line). From bottom (most yellow) to top (most gray), the color bands indicate: full daylight, twilight (civil, nautical, and astronomical), and full night.

The earliest sunrise of the month in Mesa is 6:21 AM on October 1 and the latest sunrise is 24 minutes later at 6:45 AM on October 31.

The latest sunset is 6:11 PM on October 1 and the earliest sunset is 35 minutes earlier at 5:35 PM on October 31.

Daylight saving time is not observed in Mesa during 2017.

For reference, on June 21, the longest day of the year, the Sun rises at 5:18 AM and sets 14 hours, 22 minutes later, at 7:40 PM, while on December 21, the shortest day of the year, it rises at 7:27 AM and sets 9 hours, 56 minutes later, at 5:23 PM.

Sunrise & Sunset with Twilight in October

The solar day over the course of October. From bottom to top, the black lines are the previous solar midnight, sunrise, solar noon, sunset, and the next solar midnight. The day, twilights (civil, nautical, and astronomical), and night are indicated by the color bands from yellow to gray.

Humidity

We base the humidity comfort level on the dew point, as it determines whether perspiration will evaporate from the skin, thereby cooling the body. Lower dew points feel drier and higher dew points feel more humid. Unlike temperature, which typically varies significantly between night and day, dew point tends to change more slowly, so while the temperature may drop at night, a muggy day is typically followed by a muggy night.

The chance that a given day will be muggy in Mesa is gradually decreasing during October, falling from 3% to 0% over the course of the month.

For reference, on August 14, the muggiest day of the year, there are muggy conditions 24% of the time, while on January 1, the leasy muggy day of the year, there are muggy conditions 0% of the time.

Humidity Comfort Levels in October

Humidity Comfort Levels in October in Mesa0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%181522291122334455667788991010111112121313141415151616171718181919202021212222232324242525262627272828292930303131SepNovOct 13%Oct 13%Oct 310%Oct 310%Oct 111%Oct 111%Oct 210%Oct 210%oppressiveoppressivehumidhumidcomfortablecomfortabledrydry
The percentage of time spent at various humidity comfort levels, categorized by dew point: dry < 55°F < comfortable < 60°F < humid < 65°F < muggy < 70°F < oppressive < 75°F < miserable.

Wind

This section discusses the wide-area hourly average wind vector (speed and direction) at 10 meters above the ground. The wind experienced at any given location is highly dependent on local topography and other factors, and instantaneous wind speed and direction vary more widely than hourly averages.

The average hourly wind speed in Mesa is essentially constant during October, remaining around 3.6 miles per hour throughout.

For reference, on April 30, the windiest day of the year, the daily average wind speed is 4.0 miles per hour, while on August 16, the calmest day of the year, the daily average wind speed is 3.1 miles per hour.

Average Wind Speed in October

The average of mean hourly wind speeds (dark gray line), with 25th to 75th and 10th to 90th percentile bands.
The hourly average wind direction in Mesa throughout October is predominantly from the east, with a peak proportion of 45% on October 31.

Wind Direction in October

The percentage of hours in which the mean wind direction is from each of the four cardinal wind directions (north, east, south, and west), excluding hours in which the mean wind speed is less than 1 mph. The lightly tinted areas at the boundaries are the percentage of hours spent in the implied intermediate directions (northeast, southeast, southwest, and northwest).

Solar Energy

This section discusses the total daily incident shortwave solar energy reaching the surface of the ground over a wide area, taking full account of seasonal variations in the length of the day, the elevation of the Sun above the horizon, and absorption by clouds and other atmospheric constituents. Shortwave radiation includes visible light and ultraviolet radiation.

The average daily incident shortwave solar energy in Mesa is decreasing during October, falling by 1.3 kWh, from 5.7 kWh to 4.4 kWh, over the course of the month.

Average Daily Incident Shortwave Solar Energy in October

The average daily shortwave solar energy reaching the ground per square meter (orange line), with 25th to 75th and 10th to 90th percentile bands.

Topography

For the purposes of this report, the geographical coordinates of Mesa are 33.422 deg latitude, -111.823 deg longitude, and 1,234 ft elevation.

The topography within 2 miles of Mesa is essentially flat, with a maximum elevation change of 52 feet and an average elevation above sea level of 1,241 feet. Within 10 miles is essentially flat (1,129 feet). Within 50 miles contains very significant variations in elevation (7,044 feet).

The area within 2 miles of Mesa is covered by artificial surfaces (95%), within 10 miles by artificial surfaces (52%) and shrubs (41%), and within 50 miles by shrubs (84%).

Data Sources

This report illustrates the typical weather in Mesa year round, based on a statistical analysis of historical hourly weather reports and model reconstructions from January 1, 1980 to December 31, 2016.

Temperature and Dew Point

There are 3 weather stations near enough to contribute to our estimation of the temperature and dew point in Mesa.

For each station, the records are corrected for the elevation difference between that station and Mesa according to the International Standard Atmosphere , and by the relative change present in the MERRA-2 satellite-era reanalysis between the two locations.

The estimated value at Mesa is computed as the weighted average of the individual contributions from each station, with weights proportional to the inverse of the distance between Mesa and a given station.

The stations contributing to this reconstruction are: Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (42%, 17 kilometers, west); Phoenix-Mesa Gateway Airport (33%, 20 kilometers, southeast); and Scottsdale Airport (25%, 24 kilometers, north).

Other Data

All data relating to the Sun's position (e.g., sunrise and sunset) are computed using astronomical formulas from the book, Astronomical Tables of the Sun, Moon and Planets , by Jean Meeus.

All other weather data, including cloud cover, precipitation, wind speed and direction, and solar flux, come from NASA's MERRA-2 Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis . This reanalysis combines a variety of wide-area measurements in a state-of-the-art global meteorological model to reconstruct the hourly history of weather throughout the world on a 50-kilometer grid.

Land Use data comes from the Global Land Cover SHARE database , published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.

Elevation data comes from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) , published by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Names, locations, and time zones of places and some airports come from the GeoNames Geographical Database .

Time zones for aiports and weather stations are provided by AskGeo.com .

Maps are © Esri, with data from National Geographic, Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, UNEP-WCMC, USGS, NASA, ESA, METI, NRCAN, GEBCO, NOAA, and iPC.